Monday, March 28, 2011

Analyst predicts 100 million iPhone 5 sales, what a surprise

Analysts and investors just love Apple. Go to any meeting with these number crunchers or golf players and it's "Google this" and "Apple that". The only thing you'll hear more of than that is "but does it work on the iPhone?" So, surprise surprise, one analyst at Asymco has determined that the iPhone 5 will sell about 100 million units in it's lifespan. That's one for every third person in the US, give or take a few hundred thousand.

How analyst Horace Dediu determined this is pretty simple, as seen in the chart above: historical data based on current iPhone model sales per year. According to Dediu, they've basically doubled with each new iteration. Based on this data, he's probably not wrong, considering two interchangeable factors: Verizon picking up the iPhone, and the possible delay of the iPhone 5. If the iPhone 5 is announced at WWDC, as expected, then we'll be seeing long lines at Apple, AT&T and Verizon stores, which in the US alone is over 200 million people. And more people on Verizon will likely switch, because they're waiting for the newer iPhone. If the release is delayed, then we may not have an iPhone 5, but an iPhone 4G, which besides for helping Apple out on the nomenclature of their beloved iOS device, it would sell even more units because both AT&T and Verizon are shelling out the big bucks for 4G.

[Wired via 9to5 Mac via Asymco]